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Climate change in the Caribbean

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Climate change today encompasses not only global warming, which refers to the alarming and continuous rise in the planet's average surface temperature, but also the extensive and multifaceted impacts this phenomenon has on Earth's climate.[1] These effects are manifested in various ways, including altered weather patterns, increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, melting ice caps, rising sea levels, and shifts in ecosystem dynamics.[1] Climate change accounts for historical long-term fluctuations in Earth's climate, highlighting the natural variability of climate over millennia but underscoring the unprecedented rate of current change attributed to human activities.[1]

Graph showing historic temperature change globally and in the Caribbean region.

Climate change presents significant risks to the Caribbean islands.[2] Key environmental changes anticipated in the region include rising sea levels, more intense hurricanes, longer dry seasons, and shorter wet seasons.[2] As a result, climate change is likely to impact the economy, which is heavily dependent on tourism, the environment, and the population of the Caribbean.[3][4][5]

Geography

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Main article: Caribbean § Geography_and_geology

The Caribbean is an archipelago of islands between North and South America. These islands include Antigua, Aruba, Barbados, Bonaire, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Grenada, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Martinique, Montserrat, Puerto Rico, Saba, Saint Croix, Sint Eustatius, Saint John, Saint Kitts, Saint Lucia, Saint Thomas, Saint Vincent, Sint Maarten, the Bahamas, Tortola, and Trinidad and Tobago. The average annual temperature of the Caribbean is 30.2 °C (86.4 °F).[6]

Impacts on the Natural Environment

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Temperature and weather changes

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Köppen climate classification map for the Caribbean for 1980–2016
2071–2100 map under the most intense climate change scenario. Mid-range scenarios are currently considered more likely[7][8][9]
Climate change's increase of water temperatures intensified peak wind speeds in all eleven 2024 Atlantic hurricanes.[10]

Extreme weather events

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Summary map of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season from NASA

An increase in air and sea surface temperatures is expected to lead to the formation of stronger tropical cyclones. Warm air sea surface temperatures are key factors in the development of hurricanes. As temperatures rise, the likelihood of a storm intensifying into a hurricane also increases. This warmth provides the energy that fuels the hurricane's development, creating stronger, more frequent hurricanes.[11][12]

In September 2017, the United States National Hurricane Center reported that the North Atlantic basin was highly active with four tropical storms forming, all of which developed into hurricanes. They noted a record high number of tropical storms that transitioning into hurricanes that year.[13] Among these storms, Hurricane Irma and Hurricane Maria struck the Caribbean islands. Both hurricanes reached Category 5 status. [14] The average temperature in Caribbean waters is 27°C (81°F). NASA reported that when hurricane Irma formed, the sea surface temperature in the Caribbean was 30°C (86°F).[13] The required temperature for the development of a major storm is suggested to be higher than 27 °C (80 °F).[12]

Destroyed homes after Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico

Hurricanes classified as category 5 have wind speeds exceeding 253 kilometres per hour (157 mph).[11] Hurricane Maria recorded maximum sustained winds of 281.6 kilometres per hour (175 mph), while Hurricane Irma reached maximum sustained winds of 297.7 kilometres per hour (185 mph). In addition to their extreme winds, Hurricanes Irma and Maria produced significantly more rainfall than previous storms. Warmer air temperatures, allow the atmosphere to hold more moisture, which leads to increased precipitation. Multiple sources indicate that the recent strengthening and increased precipitation of hurricanes can be attributed to climate change.[15][14][16][17]

Hurricane Irma and Maria had a total of 510 millimetres (20 in) of rainfall. In Cuba, Hurricane Irma sustained precipitation was 270 millimetres (10.8 in) per hour. In Puerto Rico, Hurricane Maria had a sustained precipitation of 164 millimetres (6.44 in) per hour.[14]

Increased temperature has caused repeated and prolonged droughts, an increase in the number of very hot days, intense rainfall events causing repeated localized flooding, and rising sea levels that consume the beaches on which tourism in the region depends.[18] A temperature rise of 2°C above preindustrial levels can increase the likelihood of extreme hurricane rainfall by 4–5 times in the Bahamas, 3 times in Cuba and Dominican Republic. Even to the richest nations in the region, it takes 6 years to recover from such event.[19]

Ecosystems

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Further information: Effects of climate change on coral reefs

Coral reefs are crucial to the Caribbean Ocean and play an essential role in the ecosystem. They provide critical habitat for marine life, serve as a natural barrier against storms, and significantly contribute to the economy through tourism and fishing. additionally, coral is utilized as a natural resource by local communities, being used in the production of cement and aggregate.

The rise in water surface temperature has had a significant impact on coral reefs. In 2005 a model-based assessment was conducted to evaluate the effects of human-induced climate change on the Caribbean. The findings of this study suggest that increasing sea surface temperatures have led to widespread coral bleaching. Coral bleaching occurs when corals lose their symbiotic algae and photosynthetic pigments, leading to a white appearance. This loss of pigmentation can result from various stressors, including changes in water temperature, light, salinity, or nutrient levels. is an effect of the change in climate because of the rise in water temperature in the seawater.

The study indicated that the increase in sea surface temperature was attributed to human activity. It concluded that it is highly unlikely that natural climate variability alone could explain this event. Their model indicated that, without human influence, such an event would occur only once every 1,000 years.[20]

Sea level rise

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Rising sea levels due to climate change are expected to contribute to coastal erosion. According to NASA, sea levels are projected to increase by 0.3–1 metre (1–4 ft) by 2050.[21] By 2100, sea levels in the Caribbean are anticipated to rise by 1.4 metres.[22]

This rise in sea level could significantly impact coastal communities in the Caribbean, particularly those located less than 3 metres (10 ft) above the sea. It is estimated that between 29 and 32 million people in Latin America and the Caribbean could be affected because they live below this threshold. The Bahamas and Trinidad and Tobago are expected to be the most impacted, as at least 80% of the total land area lies below the sea level.[23][24]

The islands provide crucial nesting sites and habitats for sea turtles, which are all at risk of endangerment due to coastal erosion and environmental changes throughout their life cycles. Damage to the beaches can negatively affect turtles that nest in the Caribbean. Additionally, sea level rise can influence where sea turtles choose to nest and alter nesting behavior.[25]

Coastal losses in the 22 largest cities of Latin America and the Caribbean are estimated to range between US$940 million and US$1.2 billion.[26] Key sources of income, particularly tourism, will be impacted, as many major tourist attractions, such as beaches and hotels, are located along the coast. A study conducted in 2004 reported that 12 million tourists had visited the Caribbean that year.

Impacts on People

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A climate change protester in Washington, D.C. holding a placard drawing attention to The Bahamas.

Multiple sources indicate that the Caribbean is facing significant challenges in addressing climate change.[27][26] The long history of colonialism, particularly focused on the extraction of goods like sugar, has hindered the economic development of these islands. As a result, many Caribbean nations find it difficult to compete in the current global economy. This longstanding colonial legacy has created a cycle of dependency, leaving many Caribbean economies reliant on global powers.[27]

The damages expected from climate change will weaken the economy of various islands as it will target some of the major sources of income, like tourism. It has been estimated that 25% to 35% of the Caribbean's economy relies on tourism.[23] Tourism could be significantly reduced if less tourists travel to the Caribbean due to increasing damage from hurricanes in the next century. It is expected that costs from hurricanes are expected to range between US$350 million to $550 million or about 11% to 17% of the current GDP annually. The Bahamas, Haiti, and Jamaica are expected to be the islands most affected by a decline in tourism. Additionally, agricultural and rural areas in the Caribbean will face significant challenges due to climate change. By 2025 the damage costs in these regions could reach approximately US$3 million per year, and by 2100, they may increase to between US$12 million – $15 million.[26]

Adaptation and Mitigation

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In Central America, and the Caribbean, climate change poses significant threats to agriculture, as the region experiences frequent droughts, cyclones and the impacts of the El Niño- Southern-Oscillation.[28] There are various adaptation strategies available, and these can differ greatly from one country to another. Many of the adjustments made are primarily focused on agriculture or water supply. Some effective adaptive strategies include restoring degraded lands, rearranging land uses across different areas, diversifying livelihoods, adjusting sowing dates, improving water harvest techniques, and even migration.[28] However, the lack of available resources remains a barrier to more substantial adaptations, meaning that the changes implemented are often incremental.[28]

One solution that researchers propose for reducing CO2 emissions is to increase the market price of carbon. By raising the price of carbon, signals can be sent to consumers to decrease their consumption of carbon-intensive goods and services. It also encourages producers to seek alternatives to carbon-intensive inputs and creates market incentives for innovation and the adoption of low-carbon products and processes.

Addressing CO2 emissions is crucial for slowing down climate change in the long term, the true costs of climate change remain uncertain. This uncertainty stems from potential future technological advancements, the irreversible nature of policies aimed at tackling climate change, and the existence of non-market goods and services that are vulnerable to its effects. Researchers emphasize that the primary challenge in addressing climate change is the lack of enforceable policies.[29]

By country and territory

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Grenada

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This section is an excerpt from Climate change in Grenada.[edit]
Climate change in Grenada has received significant public and political attention in Grenada. As of 2013, the mitigation of its effects has been high on the agenda of the Government of Grenada, which seeks to set an example through innovation and green technology.[30]

Haiti

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This section is an excerpt from Environmental issues in Haiti § Effects of climate change.[edit]
Haiti's position as a southern island nation makes it particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change. Factors that make Haiti more vulnerable than other Caribbean nations, such as the Dominican Republic, are its higher population density, extensive deforestation, extreme soil erosion, and high income-inequality.[31] Several effects of increased intensity of tropical storms, depleted coral reefs, and desertification. Since 1960 the mean annual rainfall has decreased by 5mm per month per decade, and mean temperatures have increased by 0.45 °C.[32] The combination of increased temperatures and decreased rainfall will likely lead to the intensification of drought conditions, especially in the centre of the country. According to the IPCC climate change predictions for 2050, more than 50% of Haiti will be in danger of desertification.[32] The frequency of hot days and nights has increased, while the frequency of cold days and nights have steadily decreased. Sea-level rise is projected to rise between 0.13 and 0.56 m by 2090.[32] The US Climate Change Science program estimates that with each 1 °C increase in temperature, hurricane rainfall will increase by 6–17% and hurricane wind speeds will increase by 1–8%.[32]

Puerto Rico

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These paragraphs are an excerpt from Climate change in Puerto Rico.[edit]

Climate change has had large impacts on the ecosystems and landscapes of the US territory Puerto Rico. According to a 2019 report by Germanwatch, Puerto Rico is the most affected by climate change. The territory's energy consumption is mainly derived from imported fossil fuels.[33][34]

The Puerto Rico Climate Change Council (PRCCC) noted severe changes in seven categories: air temperature, precipitation, extreme weather events, tropical storms and hurricanes, ocean acidification, sea surface temperatures, and sea level rise.[35]

Climate change also affects Puerto Rico's population, the economy, human health, and the number of people forced to migrate.

Surveys have shown[vague] climate change is a matter of concern for most Puerto Ricans.[36] The territory has enacted laws and policies concerning climate change mitigation and adaptation, including the use of renewable energy.[37] Local initiatives are working toward mitigation and adaptation goals, and international aid programs support reconstruction after extreme weather events and encourage disaster planning.[38]

US Virgin Islands

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This section is an excerpt from Climate change in the United States Virgin Islands.[edit]
Climate change in the United States Virgin Islands encompasses the effects of climate change, attributed to man-made increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, in the U.S. territory of the United States Virgin Islands.[39] The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has noted a variety of expected consequences of this phenomenon.[40]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ a b c "Climate change", Wikipedia, 2025-11-03, retrieved 2025-11-09
  2. ^ a b Beckford, Clinton L.; Rhiney, Kevon (2016). "Geographies of Globalization, Climate Change and Food and Agriculture in the Caribbean". In Clinton L. Beckford; Kevon Rhiney (eds.). Globalization, Agriculture and Food in the Caribbean. Palgrave Macmillan UK. doi:10.1057/978-1-137-53837-6. ISBN 978-1-137-53837-6.
  3. ^ Ramón Bueno; Cornella Herzfeld; Elizabeth A. Stanton; Frank Ackerman (May 2008). The Caribbean and climate change: The costs of inaction (PDF).
  4. ^ Winston Moore; Wayne Elliot; Troy Lorde (2017-04-01). "Climate change, Atlantic storm activity and the regional socio-economic impacts on the Caribbean". Environment, Development and Sustainability. 19 (2): 707–726. doi:10.1007/s10668-016-9763-1. ISSN 1387-585X. S2CID 156828736.
  5. ^ Sealey-Huggins, Leon (2017-11-02). "'1.5°C to stay alive': climate change, imperialism and justice for the Caribbean". Third World Quarterly. 38 (11): 2444–2463. doi:10.1080/01436597.2017.1368013.
  6. ^ "Caribbean Weather: Annual Temperature & Rainfall - Current Results". www.currentresults.com. Retrieved 2017-11-30.
  7. ^ Hausfather, Zeke; Peters, Glen (29 January 2020). "Emissions – the 'business as usual' story is misleading". Nature. 577 (7792): 618–20. Bibcode:2020Natur.577..618H. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3. PMID 31996825.
  8. ^ Schuur, Edward A.G.; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Commane, Roisin; Ernakovich, Jessica; Euskirchen, Eugenie; Hugelius, Gustaf; Grosse, Guido; Jones, Miriam; Koven, Charlie; Leshyk, Victor; Lawrence, David; Loranty, Michael M.; Mauritz, Marguerite; Olefeldt, David; Natali, Susan; Rodenhizer, Heidi; Salmon, Verity; Schädel, Christina; Strauss, Jens; Treat, Claire; Turetsky, Merritt (2022). "Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic". Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 47: 343–371. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847. Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement...
  9. ^ Phiddian, Ellen (5 April 2022). "Explainer: IPCC Scenarios". Cosmos. Archived from the original on 20 September 2023. Retrieved 30 September 2023. "The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can. The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario. Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C.
  10. ^ ● Gilford, Daniel M.; Giguere, Joseph; Pershing, Andrew J. (20 November 2024). "Human-caused ocean warming has intensified recent hurricanes". Environmental Research: Climate. 3 (4). doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ad8d02.
    ● Explained in "Climate change increased wind speeds for every 2024 Atlantic hurricane: Analysis" (PDF). Climate Central. 20 November 2024. Archived (PDF) from the original on 20 November 2024.
  11. ^ a b Wall, Jennifer (2015-06-09). "What Are Hurricanes?". NASA.
  12. ^ a b Plumer, Brad (2016-10-06). "How do hurricanes form? A step-by-step guide". Vox.
  13. ^ a b "Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary".
  14. ^ a b c "One of the clearest signs of climate change in Hurricanes Maria, Irma, and Harvey was the rain". 2017-09-28.
  15. ^ Taylor, Michael (2017-10-06). "Climate change in the Caribbean – learning lessons from Irma and Maria". The Guardian.
  16. ^ "Climate Change in the Caribbean Small Island States". Inter-American Development Bank. Archived from the original on 2017-12-13. Retrieved 2017-10-25.
  17. ^ Wallace-Wells, David (9 September 2017). "Will Irma Finally Change the Way We Talk About Climate?". Daily Intelligencer. Retrieved 2017-09-09.
  18. ^ "Climate change in the Caribbean – learning lessons from Irma and Maria". The Guardian. 2017-10-06. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2024-09-13.
  19. ^ BERARDELLI, JEFF (29 August 2020). "Climate change may make extreme hurricane rainfall five times more likely, study says". CBC News. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  20. ^ Simon D. Donner; Thomas R. Knutson (2007-03-27). "Model-based assessment of the role of human-induced climate change in the 2005 Caribbean coral bleaching event". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 104 (13): 5483–5488. doi:10.1073/pnas.0610122104. PMC 1838457. PMID 17360373.
  21. ^ Jackson, Randal. "Global Climate Change: Effects".
  22. ^ Stennett-Brown, Roxann K.; Stephenson, Tannecia S.; Taylor, Michael A. (2019-07-10). "Caribbean climate change vulnerability: Lessons from an aggregate index approach". PLOS ONE. 14 (7) e0219250. Bibcode:2019PLoSO..1419250S. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0219250. ISSN 1932-6203. PMC 6619692. PMID 31291297.
  23. ^ a b Clement Lewsey; Gonzalo Cid; Edward Kruse (2004-09-01). "Assessing climate change impacts on coastal infrastructure in the Eastern Caribbean". Marine Policy. 28 (5): 393–409. doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2003.10.016.
  24. ^ Borja G. Reguero; Iñigo J. Losada; Pedro Díaz-Simal; Fernando J. Méndez; Michael W. Beck (2015). "Effects of Climate Change on Exposure to Coastal Flooding in Latin America and the Caribbean". PLOS ONE. 10 (7) e0133409. Bibcode:2015PLoSO..1033409R. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0133409. PMC 4503776. PMID 26177285.
  25. ^ Fish, Marianne R.; Côté, Isabelle M.; Gill, Jennifer A.; Jones, Andrew P.; Renshoff, Saskia; Watkinson, Andrew R. (2005). "Predicting the Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Caribbean Sea Turtle Nesting Habitat". Conservation Biology. 19 (2): 482–491. doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2005.00146.x. ISSN 1523-1739. S2CID 44014595.
  26. ^ a b c Reyer, Christopher (2017-08-01). "Climate change impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean and their implications for development". Regional Environmental Change. 17 (6): 1601–1621. doi:10.1007/s10113-015-0854-6. hdl:1871.1/7e046e92-0eb5-4fd2-b547-d0c09401bb71. S2CID 53317714.
  27. ^ a b Batiste, April Karen; Rhiney, Kevon (July 1, 2016). "Climate justice and the Caribbean: An introduction". Geoforum. 73 (Supplement C): 17–21. doi:10.1016/j.geoforum.2016.04.008. ISSN 0016-7185.
  28. ^ a b c Bouroncle, Claudia; Imbach, Pablo; Rodríguez-Sánchez, Beatriz; Medellín, Claudia; Martinez-Valle, Armando; Läderach, Peter (1 March 2017). "Mapping climate change adaptive capacity and vulnerability of smallholder agricultural livelihoods in Central America: ranking and descriptive approaches to support adaptation strategies". Climatic Change. 141 (1): 123–137. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1792-0. hdl:10568/77177. ISSN 0165-0009.
  29. ^ Feld, Brian and Sebastian Galiani. "Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean: Policy Options and Research Priorities." Latin American Economic Review 24, no. 1 (2015): 1-39.
  30. ^ Luxner, Larry (2013-11-29). "Grenada's New War: Battling Climate Change". The Washington Diplomat. Retrieved 2013-12-21.
  31. ^ Sheller, Mimi; León, Yolanda M. (1 July 2016). "Uneven socio-ecologies of Hispaniola: Asymmetric capabilities for climate adaptation in Haiti and the Dominican Republic". Geoforum. 73: 32–46. doi:10.1016/j.geoforum.2015.07.026.
  32. ^ a b c d "Climate Change Knowledge Portal". sdwebx.worldbank.org. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  33. ^ "Puerto Rico Territory Energy Profile". U.S. Energy Information Administration. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  34. ^ World Bank (2023). "Climate Change Knowledge Portal".
  35. ^ Ezcurra, Paula; Rivera-Collazo, Isabel C. (2018-07-01). "An assessment of the impacts of climate change on Puerto Rico's Cultural Heritage with a case study on sea-level rise". Journal of Cultural Heritage. 32: 198–209. doi:10.1016/j.culher.2018.01.016. ISSN 1296-2074. S2CID 139358281 – via Science Direct.
  36. ^ PCCC 2022, p. 106.
  37. ^ PCCC 2022, p. 104.
  38. ^ Gobierno de Puerto Rico. "Puerto Rico Revolving Fund" (PDF). Retrieved May 2, 2023.
  39. ^ "U.S. Virgin Islands". Coastal Resilience.
  40. ^ EPA (November 2016). "What Climate Change Means for the U.S. Virgin Islands" (PDF).

Works cited

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Further reading

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  • U.S. Global Change Research Program (2018). "U.S. Caribbean". Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II (Report). Washington, DC, USA: U.S. Global Change Research Program. pp. 809–871. doi:10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH20.
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